Over the projection
Year by year
| Age | Opening capital | Age Pension | Drawn | Closing capital |
|---|
This is an illustration, not a forecast. It applies the same return every year; real markets do not, and the order of returns matters enormously in early retirement. See the methodology and assumptions.
What this projection does not model
- Sequencing risk. A constant return hides the single biggest danger in early retirement — a poor run of returns in the first few years while you are drawing down. Two portfolios with the same average return can end very differently.
- Market volatility. No range, no probability, no worst case. One straight line.
- Tax. Account-based pension payments after 60 are generally tax-free, but income outside super may not be.
- Aged care, lump sums, downsizing, inheritances, or a partner's death — each of which changes both spending and the Age Pension.
- Rent Assistance and transitional-rate pensions.
Common questions
Why does including the Age Pension change the answer so much?
Because the pension is means tested on assets — so as your capital falls, your pension rises. Late in retirement it often carries most of your spending, which means your capital does not have to. A calculator that ignores it is answering a different question: how long would your money last if the pension did not exist.
What is a "real" return?
The return after inflation and fees. If you expect 6.5% and inflation of 2.5%, the real return is about 4%. Working in real terms keeps every dollar on this page in today's money, so a balance of $200,000 in twenty years means what $200,000 means now.
What is the minimum drawdown?
The law requires a minimum withdrawal from an account-based pension each year — 5% at 65–74, rising to 14% at 95 and over. The projection applies it even when you would not otherwise need the money; the excess is treated as reinvested outside super rather than spent.
What return should I use?
We will not tell you — that is advice. What this tool is genuinely good for is the range: run it at 1%, 3% and 5% and look at how far the answer moves. If a one-point change swings the outcome by a decade, that is the real finding, not any single number.
Is anything I enter saved or sent to iAdvice?
No. The projection runs entirely in your browser. Nothing is transmitted, stored or emailed. We record only anonymous usage — that the tool was used and a broad outcome category — never the figures you type.
The number that matters is the range, not the line
If a single percentage point of return moves your answer by ten years, the useful conversation is not "what will markets do" — it is how to structure things so the answer holds up either way. That is the conversation we have every day.
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